最新发展: 四月 2, 特朗普政府正式执行 “全面的相互关税” 政策, 强加了一个 10% 几乎所有出口到美国的商品的基本关税, 并对中国等贸易伙伴征收其他关税, 欧盟, 和东盟 (China’s highest is 104%, and ASEAN’s average is 33%)18. 该政策在全球贸易体系中引起了冲击, 外贸公司正面临严重的挑战!

核心影响:

1行业差异化加剧了:

命中区域: 电子产品, 纺织品和衣服, 光伏和新能源车出口是第一个首次承受的! The United States is China’s largest textile export market, and the risk of order loss for small and medium-sized enterprises has increased; Southeast Asia’s re-export trade channels have been blocked, and corporate profit margins have been further compressed127.

Dramatic changes in cross-border e-commerce: Starting from May 2, China’s tax-free policy for small packages exported to the United States has ended. Platforms such as Shein and Temu are facing a surge in customs clearance costs, or are forced to turn to overseas warehouses to stock up or raise prices26.

2️⃣ Supply chain pressure increases sharply:

Companies that rely on the US market need to face rising costs (such as raw materials and logistics costs), 有些订单已被取消或转移到非美国市场17.

东南亚工厂建造公司遭受了 “第二打”, 越南和柬埔寨的税率高达 46%-49%, 传统的重新出口路线已经失败12.

对策:
✅市场多元化: 加快非美国市场（例如欧盟）的发展, 中东, 和非洲减少单一依赖! 尽管东盟的税率很高, 在新兴市场中仍然存在需求的潜力15.
✅供应链调整: 优化海外仓库的布局, 探索墨西哥的工厂, 拉丁美洲和其他地区, 并避免关税屏障27.
✅政策股息: 国家发展与改革委员会已启动公司援助，并研究了诸如免税和补贴之类的精确措施; 这 “绿色频道” 国内需求市场有助于消化库存, 出口到家庭的销售已成为一个新的方向14.

未来的前景:
短期疼痛是不可避免的, 但从长远来看, 关税强制工业升级! 半导体, high-end manufacturing, and independent controllable fields may usher in structural opportunities45. As the global supply chain is reshaped, flexibility and resilience will be the key to companies’ breakthrough!

#Foreign Trade Dynamics #Tariff Impact #Supply Chain Change #Market Diversification